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Post by loverofbeers on Dec 24, 2011 0:20:38 GMT -5
So for each primary for the GOP, the wager is who will place in the top three and in what order. Winner gets a beer drank by me in their honor and bragging rights.
Totally non-partisan game, just for the sake of wagering on politics like Hunter S. used to do, and the only thing I bet on since the night I won money betting on Holyfield when his ear was chewed off by some basketcase. Oh yeah, I bet on Lesnar when he lost his UFC strap. Anyways....
Iowa.
1) Paul 2) Gingrich 3) Romney
Any fellow political junkies want to take me on? Bring it.
Oh yeah, drinking Kracken Rum with Sprite. It's not 100 degrees outside. Cheers!
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Post by loverofbeers on Dec 25, 2011 10:53:55 GMT -5
New Hampshire.
1) Romney 2) Paul 3) Gingrich
I love Sunday politics shows. First time I have heard a key word used this season. Delegate-count. 2012 will be great for junkies like me.
Full Sail Wassail from Bend, Oregon is great breakfast beer. Cheers!
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Post by loverofbeers on Dec 25, 2011 11:01:10 GMT -5
And very premature but I want to check my picks later.
Super Tuesday. Virginia.
1) Romney 2) Paul 3) Huntsman who is my fourth place pick in Iowa and New Hampshire. He is the darkhorse at the moment in this race and no one knows it yet.
Next to drop out, the bat-shit crazy Michelle Bachman after Iowa or New Hampshire. The one who stays in too long for no reason at all will be Santorum.
And last prediction, it's a four man race to the GOP nomination.
Gawd, I'm a boring nerd. Cheers!
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Post by wulf on Dec 26, 2011 11:04:34 GMT -5
Even thinking about our horrible political future sends me scurrying to the Valium.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 8, 2012 11:28:52 GMT -5
Post-Iowa. I got all three places wrong, but I chose two of the three top finishers. Santorum's last minute momentum (The Big Mo in politics) came out of nowhere after I posted.
I got that Bachman would be the first to drop out. Santorum will be out before March, and possibly Perry also.
New Hampshire Prediction after the Iowa outcome.
1) Paul 2) Romney 3) Huntsman
Far out predictions for the most independently-minded and far-out state in our Union.
Guinness Black Lager is good, but Guinness Stout with a shot of espresso would be better. Cheers!
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Post by wulf on Jan 10, 2012 1:06:26 GMT -5
First ballots were cast, Romney and Huntsman tied in Dixville Notch. each got 2 votes.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 10, 2012 5:39:07 GMT -5
The political junkie in me thanks ya, Wulfie! I love returns.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 15, 2012 13:26:41 GMT -5
So I got all three candidates right, but the first two places out of order.
South Carolina. 1) Romney 2) Gingrich 3) Huntsman
Governor Big Hair will come in last again and drop out the next day.
This will become a two-man race between Romney and Paul. Romney will win the nomination at the GOP Presidential Convention.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 16, 2012 14:47:21 GMT -5
Well two mistakes on my last prediction for South Carolina on Saturday.
Huntsman was the next to drop out, a darkhorse no longer.
So my new picks are Romney, Gingrich, and Paul in third. Governor Pointy Boots is the next fly to fall.
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Post by wulf on Jan 20, 2012 15:18:46 GMT -5
I'm wondering about Santorum, as more crazy comes out I think we'll see his numbers tank hard. That whole don't sit on a couch with anyone but your wife bit and sex for procreation only must have all the whore mongers on both sides of the isle nervous.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 21, 2012 1:07:43 GMT -5
Santorum interviewed a few weeks ago on one of my Sunday morning soap operas stated that he is against BIRTH CONTROL, not just abortion. Shit you goofy fuck, not in my America!
Santorum will either drop out after South Carolina or Florida at the end of the month.
And you can look it up, but to quote my coyote-shootin' Governor Pointy Boots, "Bah-bah, Mofo". Hey Perry, you showed my fellow Texans why you dodged the gubernatorial debates last time around you pompous, ignorant, party-switching, chickenshit con-man. Let's see you dodge debates next time around in my hometown.
Oops.
Tomorrow is the most important day in the GOP nomination process. The Firewall of South Carolina. Someone, cough-Santorum, is going to come out as charred remains. His campaign is as dead as the stillbirth he introduced to his young kids as their "brother". Morbid and sick religious twat. Way to scar and brain-wash your children. Bah-bah to ya too, Mofo.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 22, 2012 1:38:28 GMT -5
I got nothing right, and with four candidates, picking two finishers is just horseshit. So to call Florida. 1) Gingrich 2) Romney 3) Paul Santorum out before Florida on the 31st. Paul will continue to come in last, but will take his delegates and his Constitutionalist message to the convention floor, and maybe launch an independent campaign. I'm backing off calling this Romney's. If he loses Florida, I think Gingrich will win his party's nomination. And Obama wins. He is going to govern this year like he should have at the start of his second year and unemployment will drop these next ten months. I think I'm now a fan of the Inky goodness of Kracken Black Rum. Cheers! www.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID2969/images/kraken_rum_bottle.jpg
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Post by wulf on Jan 23, 2012 17:53:42 GMT -5
I honestly don't see how anyone can vote for Gingrich or Romney in good conscience. We really do need a wild card like Ron Paul in there. Regardless of who gets the nomination I see Obama holding on to the office. We really need to get all the extremists out of congress and pack it with moderates.
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Post by loverofbeers on Jan 24, 2012 3:37:02 GMT -5
My perfect candidate would have been a bit of Paul and a bit of Huntsman. The GOP base blew it.
Obama wins, and I agree Wulf.
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Post by loverofbeers on Mar 7, 2012 18:21:57 GMT -5
So I'm taking a cop-out, if anyone cares about this topic. This year's GOP nomination is the Bizarro World version of how the Republicans have done things for years, decades. My cop-out is that this year nearly everything has changed every two or three weeks, or a day before a caucus or primary. And the GOP base is fickle and unsatisfied with this crop of contenders. I'm into the details, the minutia, but I'll try to stop boring right now. So instead here are portions of a boring (not to me) article out today. Long read, so skip it if you hate the topic. If you are a political junkie, like me, read on. It's about the nomination process and the living dead. ZOMBIES! Credit David Corn at MotherJones.com Mitt Romney's Zombie ProblemMitt Romney faces the fundamental problem confronted by all zombie hunters: How do you kill that which is dead already? The Not-That-Super Tuesday contests showed that Romney remains the front-runner—he pocketed many more delegates than the rest of the pack and squeaked out a victory in the much-prized swing state of Ohio—but the results will not send the others packing. Santorum won Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota, and Newt Gingrich triumphed in his home state of Georgia. Romney's crew will now be telling reporters that the delegate disparity has become too wide for the semi-surging Santorum to bridge. But the other candidates will keep on pursuing Romney like the undead trodding after the barely living. The fundamental reality of the Republican GOP 2012 death march is that none of the candidates ought to win. Romney is a robot reprogrammed to appeal to a base that isn't keen on a former Massachusetts governor who once proudly proclaimed his fealty to moderation and progressivism. It's taken millions of dollars (much of that spent on mud-encrusted negative ads) and a Titanic boatload of cajoling from the GOP establishment to raise Romney to the mid-30s in Republican polls and election results. And, for what it's worth at this point, in national surveys this clubhouse buddy of NASCAR team owners trails a president who is presiding over an anemic economy at a moment when nearly 60 percent of the public fears the nation is stumbling in the wrong direction. Yet Romney is heads, hair, and broad shoulders above what remains in the Republican field. (Woody Allen might have predicted this race in his 1977 film Annie Hall, when he quoted the old joke about two elderly women at a Catskills mountain resort. One says, "Boy, the food at this place is really terrible." The other one says, "Yeah, I know, and such small portions.") After Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and Herman Cain self-deported from the circus, GOP voters were left with—besides Romney—a maniacally self-aggrandizing former House speaker with more baggage than a 747 who is better suited for a reality TV show than residency at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, a little-known senator who lost his last election (in his home state) by a historic margin and who seems to believe Cotton Mather was a wimp, and a conspiracy theorist who supports drug legalization and decries American empire (positions not usually embraced by garden-variety Republicans). They are each damaged goods. (Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were, in earlier times, even pronounced politically dead.) In a perfect—or less imperfect world—none of the Republican Final Four should win the crown. But absent some made-for-HBO-movie surprise development, one of these fundamentally flawed candidates will win. --------------Cut to the end of the article------------------------------ Romney needs to break away from the freak show. Which brings us back to the all-important zombie question—how can he rid himself of his flesh-eating pursuers? Despite his Super Tuesday gains (and advantages in money and organization), it may not be easy—and not just because Santorum can stake a claim to a modicum of momentum. Due to new Republican party rules, more states this cycle are awarding delegates on a proportional basis. The GOP primaries used to be dominated by winner-take-all contests. Under this revised system, the three non-Romneys each have great incentive to remain in the race—and bag delegates that might become bargaining chips, should Romney reach the convention in Tampa ahead of the zombie pack but still shy of the 50-plus percentage of delegates needed to claim the prize. (It is possible that any of these three could end up with enough delegates for use in a backroom deal that would land Romney on the GOP throne.) Also, given Romney's less-than-stellar performance as the candidate, it would not be unreasonable for the others to stick around just in case of an unlikely-but-not-inconceivable Romney implosion. And it's not bad for book sales, Fox News show-hosting opportunities, or mailing-list development to remain in the GOP muck pit, even (for Santorum and Gingrich) at the possible cost of being further pilloried by pro-Romney super-PAC ads. Romney doesn't have much leverage over them. Zombies are hard to reason with. They're already dead. They're tough to bribe. They want to kill you. Santorum need only look at Mike Huckabee to see that there's life (and great profit) as a social conservative leader following a presidential race. Gingrich has, undoubtedly, already calculated how much his lecture fees will rise with each week he stays in the race. With his alternative-reality crusade, Ron Paul can continue to bolster and build a fiefdom he can hand over to son Rand (and perhaps avoid the estate tax). Pressure from Romney's pals in the Republican establishment (Vin Weber, this means you!) may not be sufficient to trump these other possible benefits. Super Tuesday yielded more delegates for Romney—and delegate-snatching is the name of the game. But it did not alter important fundamentals. Romney remains a weak candidate in a weak field. And he has yet to figure out a better strategy of coping with zombies than the one adopted by Bill Murray's character in Zombieland: pretend to be one yourself.
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